Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock — Scottish Premiership result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aberdeen
57%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Kilmarnock
20%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aberdeen win. Expected goals 1.77–0.99 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.6%). It finished 0–0.
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Aberdeen
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hearts | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Celtic | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
Kilmarnock
| 2 Aug | A | vs St Johnstone | 3–4 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Celtic | 1–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dundee Utd | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St Mirren | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Aberdeen | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aberdeen (Home · 3 matches) | Kilmarnock (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 1.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Aberdeen's home record; away stats use Kilmarnock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.