Aberdeen vs Hibernian — Scottish Premiership forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Aberdeen
39%
Draw
27%
Hibernian
34%
Expected goals
1.35–1.25
Aberdeen · Hibernian
Aberdeen win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (9.3%), 0–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Aberdeen score at least twice in 39%; Hibernian in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Hibernian goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Aberdeen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market reference | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 2.47 |
| Draw | 3.54 |
| Hibernian | 2.78 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 31 Oct · 04:34 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Aberdeen
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hearts | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Sept | A | vs Celtic | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 | D |
Hibernian
| 2 Aug | H | vs Motherwell | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Rangers | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Dundee | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Hearts | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs St Johnstone | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 19 Sept 26 | HibernianvsAberdeen | 1 – 1 |
Aberdeen: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Aberdeen (Home · 6 matches) | Hibernian (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Aberdeen's home record; away stats use Hibernian's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.