NEOM vs Al Kholood — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
NEOM
vs
15:00
Al Kholood
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
NEOM
54%
Draw
24%
Al Kholood
22%
Expected goals
1.72–1.00
NEOM · Al Kholood
NEOM win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–0 (10.5%), 2–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely NEOM win is 1–0 (10.5%).
NEOM score at least twice in 51%; Al Kholood in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Al Kholood goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEOM goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.74–0.97 → 1.72–1.00
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.