Neom vs Abha Club — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Saturday, 24 October 2026·14:00
Neom
vs
14:00
Abha Club
NeomExpected goalsAbha Club
1.89 xG1.00 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Neom
63%
Draw
21%
Abha Club
16%
Expected goals
1.89–1.00
Neom · Abha Club
Neom win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (12.4%), 2–0 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Neom score at least twice in 59%; Abha Club in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Abha Club goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Neom goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Neom clean sheet37%
Abha Club clean sheet13%
Neom score 2+59%
Abha Club score 2+26%
Neom score 3+28%
Abha Club score 3+8%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–113.6%
1–012.4%
2–010.6%
1–19.8%
3–16.9%
3–05.4%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.