Al Taawon vs Abha — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Al Taawon
vs
15:00
Abha
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al Taawon
55%
Draw
24%
Abha
21%
Expected goals
1.71–1.03
Al Taawon · Abha
Al Taawon win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11.5%), 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al Taawon score at least twice in 52%; Abha in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Abha goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al Taawon goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.54–1.16 → 1.71–1.03
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.