Al-Shabab vs Al-Taawoun — Saudi Pro League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Al-Shabab
vs
18:00
Al-Taawoun
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Shabab
43%
Draw
24%
Al-Taawoun
33%
Expected goals
1.59–1.33
Al-Shabab · Al-Taawoun
Al-Shabab win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Shabab win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Al-Shabab score at least twice in 47%; Al-Taawoun in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Taawoun goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Shabab goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.