Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Al Shabab
vs
15:00
Al-Ettifaq
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al Shabab
56%
Draw
22%
Al-Ettifaq
22%
Expected goals
1.79–1.13
Al Shabab · Al-Ettifaq
Al Shabab win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al Shabab score at least twice in 55%; Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Ettifaq goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al Shabab goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.53–1.33 → 1.79–1.13
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.