Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Friday, 30 October 2026·18:00
Al-Shabab
vs
18:00
Al-Ahli
Al-ShababExpected goalsAl-Ahli
1.34 xG1.73 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Shabab
27%
Draw
23%
Al-Ahli
50%
Expected goals
1.34–1.73
Al-Shabab · Al-Ahli
Al-Ahli win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.8%), 1–1 (10.4%), 0–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Shabab score at least twice in 38%; Al-Ahli in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Ahli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Shabab goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Over 4.5 goals20%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Shabab clean sheet17%
Al-Ahli clean sheet27%
Al-Shabab score 2+38%
Al-Ahli score 2+53%
Al-Shabab score 3+16%
Al-Ahli score 3+25%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market reference | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 23% | 50% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–211.8%
1–110.4%
0–18.9%
0–27.4%
2–15.9%
1–35.7%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.