Al-Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah — Saudi Pro League forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Al-Riyadh
vs
18:00
Al-Qadisiyah
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Riyadh
10%
Draw
16%
Al-Qadisiyah
75%
Expected goals
0.96–2.00
Al-Riyadh · Al-Qadisiyah
Al-Qadisiyah win 75% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (18.6%), 0–1 (15.4%), 0–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 45% of outcomes; the other 55% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Riyadh score at least twice in 24%; Al-Qadisiyah in 65%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Qadisiyah goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 15.4 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 18.6 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Riyadh goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market reference | 10% | 16% | 75% |
| Metis Forecast | 10% | 16% | 75% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.