Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Al Riyadh
vs
15:00
Al-Hazm
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al Riyadh
42%
Draw
26%
Al-Hazm
31%
Expected goals
1.47–1.23
Al Riyadh · Al-Hazm
Al Riyadh win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al Riyadh win is 1–0 (9.0%).
Al Riyadh score at least twice in 43%; Al-Hazm in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Hazm goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al Riyadh goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 26% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.50–1.19 → 1.47–1.23
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.