Al-Qadisiyah vs Al-Hilal — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Al-Qadisiyah
vs
18:00
Al-Hilal
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Qadisiyah
28%
Draw
23%
Al-Hilal
49%
Expected goals
1.32–1.62
Al-Qadisiyah · Al-Hilal
Al-Hilal win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.8%), 1–1 (10.8%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Qadisiyah score at least twice in 37%; Al-Hilal in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Hilal goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Qadisiyah goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 23% | 49% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.