Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Al-Nassr
vs
15:00
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Nassr
47%
Draw
23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC
30%
Expected goals
1.82–1.45
Al-Nassr · Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Nassr win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.3%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–2 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Nassr win is 2–1 (9.5%).
Al-Nassr score at least twice in 54%; Al-Qadisiyah FC in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Qadisiyah FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Al-Nassr goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| Market reference | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 23% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.79–1.47 → 1.82–1.45
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.