Al-Nassr vs Al-Kholood — Saudi Pro League forecast, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Al-Nassr
vs
18:00
Al-Kholood
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Nassr
81%
Draw
11%
Al-Kholood
8%
Expected goals
2.73–0.81
Al-Nassr · Al-Kholood
Al-Nassr win 81% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.6%), 3–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Nassr score at least twice in 77%; Al-Kholood in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Kholood goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Nassr goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Market reference | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 81% | 11% | 8% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.