Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 9 October 2026
Al-Nassr
vs
18:00
Al Diriyah
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Nassr
69%
Draw
16%
Al Diriyah
15%
Expected goals
2.11–0.86
Al-Nassr · Al Diriyah
Al-Nassr win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.2%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Nassr score at least twice in 63%; Al Diriyah in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Al Diriyah goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Nassr goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market reference | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 16% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 2.06–0.89 → 2.11–0.86
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.