Al-Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 9 October 2026
Al-Kholood
vs
13:50
Al-Qadisiyah
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Kholood
18%
Draw
20%
Al-Qadisiyah
63%
Expected goals
1.11–1.82
Al-Kholood · Al-Qadisiyah
Al-Qadisiyah win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (15.4%), 0–1 (12.8%), 0–2 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Kholood score at least twice in 29%; Al-Qadisiyah in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Qadisiyah goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 9.2 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Kholood goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 18% | 20% | 63% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 20% | 63% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.