Al-Kholood vs Al-Khaleej — Saudi Pro League forecast, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Al-Kholood
vs
13:25
Al-Khaleej
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Kholood
47%
Draw
27%
Al-Khaleej
27%
Expected goals
1.72–1.31
Al-Kholood · Al-Khaleej
Al-Kholood win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Kholood win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Al-Kholood score at least twice in 52%; Al-Khaleej in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Khaleej goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Kholood goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market reference | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.