Al-Ittihad vs Neom — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Al-Ittihad
vs
17:30
Neom
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ittihad
49%
Draw
25%
Neom
27%
Expected goals
1.71–1.25
Al-Ittihad · Neom
Al-Ittihad win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Ittihad win is 2–1 (10.1%).
Al-Ittihad score at least twice in 51%; Neom in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Neom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ittihad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 25% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.