Al-Ittihad vs Al Diriyah — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Al-Ittihad
vs
15:30
Al Diriyah
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ittihad
50%
Draw
22%
Al Diriyah
27%
Expected goals
1.67–1.26
Al-Ittihad · Al Diriyah
Al-Ittihad win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Ittihad score at least twice in 51%; Al Diriyah in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Al Diriyah goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ittihad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market reference | 50% | 22% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 22% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.