Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Al-Hilal
vs
18:00
Al-Ittihad
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Hilal
75%
Draw
14%
Al-Ittihad
11%
Expected goals
2.12–0.92
Al-Hilal · Al-Ittihad
Al-Hilal win 75% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (15.8%), 1–0 (13.6%), 2–0 (12.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 42% of outcomes; the other 58% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Hilal score at least twice in 67%; Al-Ittihad in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Ittihad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 15.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Hilal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 75% | 14% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.