Al-Hilal vs Al-Fateh — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Saturday, 31 October 2026·18:00
Al-Hilal
vs
18:00
Al-Fateh
Al-HilalExpected goalsAl-Fateh
2.54 xG0.79 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Hilal
90%
Draw
6%
Al-Fateh
4%
Expected goals
2.54–0.79
Al-Hilal · Al-Fateh
Al-Hilal win 90% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (16.4%), 2–0 (14.0%), 1–0 (13.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 44% of outcomes; the other 56% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Hilal score at least twice in 79%; Al-Fateh in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Fateh goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 16.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Hilal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Over 4.5 goals24%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Hilal clean sheet44%
Al-Fateh clean sheet3%
Al-Hilal score 2+79%
Al-Fateh score 2+18%
Al-Hilal score 3+47%
Al-Fateh score 3+4%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 90% | 6% | 4% |
| Metis Forecast | 90% | 6% | 4% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–116.4%
2–014.0%
1–013.4%
3–110.4%
3–08.9%
3–26.1%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.