Al-Hazem vs Neom — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Saturday, 10 October 2026·13:50
Al-Hazem
vs
13:50
Neom
Al-HazemExpected goalsNeom
1.23 xG1.69 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Hazem
23%
Draw
23%
Neom
54%
Expected goals
1.23–1.69
Al-Hazem · Neom
Neom win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (13.3%), 0–1 (11.1%), 1–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Hazem score at least twice in 34%; Neom in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Neom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Hazem goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Hazem clean sheet17%
Neom clean sheet30%
Al-Hazem score 2+34%
Neom score 2+53%
Al-Hazem score 3+13%
Neom score 3+23%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 23% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–213.3%
0–111.1%
1–110.6%
0–28.3%
1–35.8%
0–05.5%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.