Al-Hazem vs Al-Nassr — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Saudi Pro League·Friday, 6 November 2026·14:55
Al-Hazem
vs
14:55
Al-Nassr
Al-HazemExpected goalsAl-Nassr
0.87 xG2.58 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Hazem
8%
Draw
12%
Al-Nassr
81%
Expected goals
0.87–2.58
Al-Hazem · Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr win 81% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.3%), 0–2 (11.8%), 0–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Hazem score at least twice in 21%; Al-Nassr in 76%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Nassr goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Hazem goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Over 4.5 goals26%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Hazem clean sheet6%
Al-Nassr clean sheet41%
Al-Hazem score 2+21%
Al-Nassr score 2+76%
Al-Hazem score 3+6%
Al-Nassr score 3+48%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Market reference | 8% | 12% | 81% |
| Metis Forecast | 8% | 12% | 81% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–212.3%
0–211.8%
0–19.5%
1–39.3%
0–38.9%
1–15.3%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.