Al-Fayha vs Al-Riyadh — Saudi Pro League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Al-Fayha
vs
13:40
Al-Riyadh
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Fayha
45%
Draw
29%
Al-Riyadh
27%
Expected goals
1.57–1.24
Al-Fayha · Al-Riyadh
Al-Fayha win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Fayha win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Al-Fayha score at least twice in 47%; Al-Riyadh in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Riyadh goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Fayha goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 29% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.