Al-Fateh vs Al-Riyadh — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Al-Fateh
vs
14:30
Al-Riyadh
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Fateh
45%
Draw
25%
Al-Riyadh
30%
Expected goals
1.57–1.34
Al-Fateh · Al-Riyadh
Al-Fateh win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (10.6%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Fateh win is 2–1 (10.6%).
Al-Fateh score at least twice in 48%; Al-Riyadh in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Riyadh goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Fateh goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market reference | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.