Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 9 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Friday, 9 October 2026·14:55
Al-Fateh
vs
14:55
Al-Ahli
Al-FatehExpected goalsAl-Ahli
1.01 xG1.88 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Fateh
15%
Draw
18%
Al-Ahli
68%
Expected goals
1.01–1.88
Al-Fateh · Al-Ahli
Al-Ahli win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (16.0%), 0–1 (14.2%), 0–2 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 41% of outcomes; the other 59% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Fateh score at least twice in 26%; Al-Ahli in 60%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Ahli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 16.0 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Fateh goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Fateh clean sheet12%
Al-Ahli clean sheet37%
Al-Fateh score 2+26%
Al-Ahli score 2+60%
Al-Fateh score 3+8%
Al-Ahli score 3+28%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 15% | 18% | 68% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 18% | 68% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–216.0%
0–114.2%
0–210.9%
1–18.3%
1–37.2%
2–35.3%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.