Al-Faisaly vs Al-Nassr — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Al-Faisaly
vs
13:30
Al-Nassr
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Faisaly
9%
Draw
12%
Al-Nassr
79%
Expected goals
0.92–2.32
Al-Faisaly · Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr win 79% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (15.1%), 0–2 (12.1%), 0–1 (11.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Faisaly score at least twice in 23%; Al-Nassr in 72%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Nassr goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 15.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Faisaly goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| Market reference | 9% | 12% | 79% |
| Metis Forecast | 9% | 12% | 79% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.