Al-Faisaly vs Al Diriyah — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Al-Faisaly
vs
13:20
Al Diriyah
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Faisaly
28%
Draw
23%
Al Diriyah
49%
Expected goals
1.32–1.62
Al-Faisaly · Al Diriyah
Al Diriyah win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.8%), 1–1 (10.8%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Faisaly score at least twice in 37%; Al Diriyah in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Al Diriyah goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Faisaly goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 23% | 49% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.