Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Khaleej — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Al-Ettifaq
vs
14:55
Al-Khaleej
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ettifaq
48%
Draw
25%
Al-Khaleej
26%
Expected goals
1.69–1.24
Al-Ettifaq · Al-Khaleej
Al-Ettifaq win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Ettifaq win is 2–1 (10.3%).
Al-Ettifaq score at least twice in 51%; Al-Khaleej in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Khaleej goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ettifaq goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market reference | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 25% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.