Al Diriyah vs Neom — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Friday, 30 October 2026·14:50
Al Diriyah
vs
14:50
Neom
Al DiriyahExpected goalsNeom
1.24 xG1.22 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al Diriyah
37%
Draw
26%
Neom
37%
Expected goals
1.24–1.22
Al Diriyah · Neom
Neom win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 0–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al Diriyah score at least twice in 35%; Neom in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Neom goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al Diriyah goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al Diriyah clean sheet30%
Neom clean sheet30%
Al Diriyah score 2+35%
Neom score 2+35%
Al Diriyah score 3+13%
Neom score 3+12%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 26% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–112.4%
0–110.7%
1–09.7%
0–08.7%
1–28.7%
2–17.8%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.