Al-Ahli vs Al-Taawoun — Saudi Pro League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Saudi Pro League·Saturday, 7 November 2026·17:30
Al-Ahli
vs
17:30
Al-Taawoun
Al-AhliExpected goalsAl-Taawoun
2.14 xG1.05 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ahli
64%
Draw
19%
Al-Taawoun
16%
Expected goals
2.14–1.05
Al-Ahli · Al-Taawoun
Al-Ahli win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.1%), 2–0 (9.9%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Ahli score at least twice in 64%; Al-Taawoun in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Taawoun goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ahli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Over 4.5 goals22%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Ahli clean sheet35%
Al-Taawoun clean sheet11%
Al-Ahli score 2+64%
Al-Taawoun score 2+28%
Al-Ahli score 3+36%
Al-Taawoun score 3+9%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market reference | 64% | 19% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 19% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–111.1%
2–09.9%
1–08.9%
1–18.9%
3–17.5%
3–06.7%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.