Al-Ahli vs Al-Nassr — Saudi Pro League forecast, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Al-Ahli
vs
18:00
Al-Nassr
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ahli
30%
Draw
25%
Al-Nassr
45%
Expected goals
1.32–1.71
Al-Ahli · Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Al-Nassr win is 1–2 (8.7%).
Al-Ahli score at least twice in 38%; Al-Nassr in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Nassr goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ahli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market reference | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.