Al-Ahli vs Al-Khaleej — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Saudi Pro League·Friday, 23 October 2026·18:00
Al-Ahli
vs
18:00
Al-Khaleej
Al-AhliExpected goalsAl-Khaleej
2.09 xG0.99 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ahli
70%
Draw
17%
Al-Khaleej
13%
Expected goals
2.09–0.99
Al-Ahli · Al-Khaleej
Al-Ahli win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (14.6%), 1–0 (12.0%), 2–0 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Ahli score at least twice in 65%; Al-Khaleej in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Khaleej goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ahli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Over 4.5 goals20%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Al-Ahli clean sheet37%
Al-Khaleej clean sheet10%
Al-Ahli score 2+65%
Al-Khaleej score 2+25%
Al-Ahli score 3+34%
Al-Khaleej score 3+8%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market reference | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
2–114.6%
1–012.0%
2–011.1%
3–18.1%
1–17.9%
3–06.1%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.