Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Faisaly FC — Saudi Pro League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
vs
15:00
Al-Faisaly FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Al-Ahli Jeddah
74%
Draw
15%
Al-Faisaly FC
11%
Expected goals
2.58–0.81
Al-Ahli Jeddah · Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Ahli Jeddah win 74% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.1%), 3–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Al-Ahli Jeddah score at least twice in 72%; Al-Faisaly FC in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Faisaly FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market reference | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 74% | 15% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.