Abha Club vs Al-Shabab — Saudi Pro League forecast, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Abha Club
vs
15:10
Al-Shabab
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Abha Club
24%
Draw
24%
Al-Shabab
52%
Expected goals
1.24–1.75
Abha Club · Al-Shabab
Al-Shabab win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.4%), 1–1 (11.3%), 0–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Abha Club score at least twice in 35%; Al-Shabab in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Shabab goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Abha Club goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market reference | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 24% | 52% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.