Abha Club vs Al-Faisaly — Saudi Pro League forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Abha Club
vs
12:40
Al-Faisaly
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Abha Club
41%
Draw
27%
Al-Faisaly
32%
Expected goals
1.56–1.36
Abha Club · Al-Faisaly
Abha Club win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Abha Club score at least twice in 46%; Al-Faisaly in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Faisaly goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Abha Club goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.65–1.28 → 1.56–1.36
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.