Abha Club vs Al-Faisaly — Saudi Pro League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Abha Club
vs
15:25
Al-Faisaly
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Abha Club
46%
Draw
27%
Al-Faisaly
27%
Expected goals
1.65–1.26
Abha Club · Al-Faisaly
Abha Club win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Abha Club win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Abha Club score at least twice in 49%; Al-Faisaly in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Al-Faisaly goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Abha Club goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.