UTA Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Romania Liga I forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
UTA Arad
vs
15:30
Petrolul Ploiesti
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
UTA Arad
55%
Draw
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti
21%
Expected goals
1.67–1.03
UTA Arad · Petrolul Ploiesti
UTA Arad win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
UTA Arad score at least twice in 51%; Petrolul Ploiesti in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Petrolul Ploiesti goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UTA Arad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 24% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Petrolul Ploiesti
| 21 Sept | H | vs Csikszereda | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.