Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova — Romania Liga I forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Sepsi
vs
18:00
Universitatea Craiova
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sepsi
15%
Draw
22%
Universitatea Craiova
62%
Expected goals
0.84–1.75
Sepsi · Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.3%), 0–2 (12.0%), 1–2 (11.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sepsi score at least twice in 20%; Universitatea Craiova in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Universitatea Craiova goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sepsi goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Market reference | 15% | 22% | 62% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 22% | 62% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 0.99–1.54 → 0.84–1.75
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Recent form
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Universitatea Craiova
| 19 Sept | H | vs FCSB | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.