Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Romania Liga I forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Farul Constanta
vs
18:00
Petrolul Ploiesti
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Farul Constanta
51%
Draw
25%
Petrolul Ploiesti
24%
Expected goals
1.52–0.98
Farul Constanta · Petrolul Ploiesti
Farul Constanta win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.5%), 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Farul Constanta score at least twice in 45%; Petrolul Ploiesti in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Petrolul Ploiesti goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Farul Constanta goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 28% | 25% |
| Market reference | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Farul Constanta
| 20 Sept | A | vs Dinamo Bucuresti | 0–4 | L |
Petrolul Ploiesti
| 21 Sept | H | vs Csikszereda | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.