Botosani vs UTA Arad — Romania Liga I forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Romania Liga I·Saturday, 10 October 2026·14:15
Botosani
vs
14:15
UTA Arad
BotosaniExpected goalsUTA Arad
1.40 xG1.20 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botosani
41%
Draw
25%
UTA Arad
34%
Expected goals
1.40–1.20
Botosani · UTA Arad
Botosani win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (9.5%), 0–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botosani score at least twice in 41%; UTA Arad in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
UTA Arad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botosani goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Botosani clean sheet30%
UTA Arad clean sheet25%
Botosani score 2+41%
UTA Arad score 2+34%
Botosani score 3+17%
UTA Arad score 3+12%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market reference | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
1–112.0%
1–09.5%
0–19.1%
2–18.5%
1–28.4%
0–07.7%
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.