Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Romania Liga I forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Botosani
vs
15:00
Petrolul Ploiesti
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botosani
52%
Draw
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti
24%
Expected goals
1.66–1.05
Botosani · Petrolul Ploiesti
Botosani win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 1–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Botosani win is 1–0 (10.6%).
Botosani score at least twice in 50%; Petrolul Ploiesti in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Petrolul Ploiesti goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botosani goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market reference | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Petrolul Ploiesti
| 21 Sept | H | vs Csikszereda | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.