Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vitoria Guimaraes
64%
Draw
22%
Moreirense
14%
Expected goals
1.71–0.74
Vitoria Guimaraes · Moreirense
Vitoria Guimaraes win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16.4%), 2–0 (13.2%), 2–1 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 41% of outcomes; the other 59% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vitoria Guimaraes score at least twice in 52%; Moreirense in 17%.
Scoreline distribution
Moreirense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16.5 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vitoria Guimaraes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| Market reference | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Guimaraes | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.55 Betano |
| Draw | 4.26 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 4.15 | 3.66 | 4.32 1xBet |
| Moreirense | 6.69 | 7.00 | 6.00 | 6.57 | 6.80 | 6.50 | 6.00 | 6.30 | 5.42 | 7.00 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Vitoria Guimaraes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria Guimaraes (Home · 4 matches) | Moreirense (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Vitoria Guimaraes's home record; away stats use Moreirense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.