Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vitoria Guimaraes
67%
top pick
Draw
21%
result
Moreirense
12%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 21.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vitoria Guimaraes win. Expected goals 1.75–0.71 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (17.2%), 2–0 (13.8%), 2–1 (12.1%). It finished 1–1.
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Vitoria Guimaraes
| 8 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Braga | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Casa Pia | 0–0 | D |
Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria Guimaraes (Home · 5 matches) | Moreirense (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.80 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Vitoria Guimaraes's home record; away stats use Moreirense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.