Sporting vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sporting
82%
Draw
11%
Moreirense
6%
Expected goals
2.31–0.72
Sporting · Moreirense
Sporting win 82% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14.6%), 1–0 (14.3%), 2–1 (14.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 43% of outcomes; the other 57% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sporting score at least twice in 72%; Moreirense in 16%.
Scoreline distribution
Moreirense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sporting goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Market reference | 82% | 11% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 82% | 11% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sporting | 1.18 |
| Draw | 7.95 |
| Moreirense | 12.75 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sporting
| 8 Aug | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sporting (Home · 5 matches) | Moreirense (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Sporting's home record; away stats use Moreirense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.