Sporting vs Arouca — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sporting
70%
top pick
Draw
19%
result
Arouca
10%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 19.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sporting win. Expected goals 2.24–0.76 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (10.5%), 2–1 (9.5%). It finished 2–2.
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Sporting
| 8 Aug | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sporting (Home · 5 matches) | Arouca (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 1.60 |
Home stats use Sporting's home record; away stats use Arouca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.