Sporting vs Academico de Viseu — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Sporting
55%
Draw
25%
Academico de Viseu
20%
Expected goals
1.77–1.06
Sporting · Academico de Viseu
Sporting win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sporting win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Sporting score at least twice in 53%; Academico de Viseu in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Academico de Viseu goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sporting goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | over | under | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | |||
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Sporting
| 8 Aug | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sporting (Home · 4 matches) | Academico de Viseu (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | — |
Home stats use Sporting's home record; away stats use Academico de Viseu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.