Santa Clara vs Benfica — Primeira Liga forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Santa Clara
14%
Draw
23%
Benfica
64%
Expected goals
0.78–1.92
Santa Clara · Benfica
Benfica win 64% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.4%), 0–1 (12.1%), 1–1 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Santa Clara score at least twice in 18%; Benfica in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
Benfica goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Santa Clara goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | over | under | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | |||
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Santa Clara
| 10 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
Benfica
| 9 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 7–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Maritimo | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Santa Clara (Home · 4 matches) | Benfica (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Santa Clara's home record; away stats use Benfica's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.