Rio Ave vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rio Ave
25%
Draw
29%
Famalicao
46%
Expected goals
1.00–1.52
Rio Ave · Famalicao
Famalicao win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (10.3%), 0–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Famalicao win is 0–1 (10.3%).
Rio Ave score at least twice in 27%; Famalicao in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Famalicao goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rio Ave goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 20% | 27% | 53% |
| Market reference | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 29% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 3.78 |
| Draw | 3.31 |
| Famalicao | 2.07 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rio Ave
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
Famalicao
| 7 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gil Vicente | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rio Ave (Home · 4 matches) | Famalicao (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Rio Ave's home record; away stats use Famalicao's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.