Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rio Ave
35%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Estrela Amadora
35%
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rio Ave win. Expected goals 1.25–1.33 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.8%). It finished 3–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Rio Ave
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rio Ave (Home · 5 matches) | Estrela Amadora (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Rio Ave's home record; away stats use Estrela Amadora's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.