Porto vs Benfica — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Porto
34%
result
Draw
29%
Benfica
37%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Porto win 34.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Benfica win. Expected goals 1.28–1.52 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.3%). It finished 3–1.
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Porto
| 9 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Moreirense | 2–1 | W |
Benfica
| 9 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 7–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Maritimo | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Porto (Home · 5 matches) | Benfica (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Porto's home record; away stats use Benfica's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.