Porto vs Benfica — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Porto
34%
Draw
28%
Benfica
37%
Expected goals
1.29–1.52
Porto · Benfica
Benfica win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Porto score at least twice in 38%; Benfica in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Benfica goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Porto goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 2.81 | 2.70 | 2.62 | 2.83 | 2.77 | 2.80 | 2.63 | 2.71 | 2.51 | 2.83 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.44 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.04 | 3.50 Betano |
| Benfica | 2.57 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 2.59 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.48 | 2.36 | 2.65 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Porto
| 9 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Moreirense | 2–1 | W |
Benfica
| 9 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 7–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Maritimo | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Porto (Home · 4 matches) | Benfica (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Porto's home record; away stats use Benfica's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.