Nacional vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nacional
25%
Draw
29%
Famalicao
46%
pick · result
Final score
0–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Famalicao win 46.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Famalicao win. Expected goals 0.98–1.41 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (12.1%), 0–0 (10.2%). It finished 0–4.
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Nacional
| 10 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sporting | 0–2 | L |
Famalicao
| 7 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gil Vicente | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nacional (Home · 5 matches) | Famalicao (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Nacional's home record; away stats use Famalicao's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.